Coastal Rhode Island hotels are on pace to finish 2026 with revenue per available room up 12.9 percent, while Providence and Warwick are forecast to end the year down slightly, according to data presented at RI Hospitality’s annual economic outlook breakfast.
CoStar’s Jason Weinstein put statewide RevPAR growth at 5.9 percent for 2026, driven mostly by room rates rather than occupancy. Statewide average daily rate is forecast up 5.2 percent against occupancy growth of 0.7 percent. The picture narrows next year, with statewide RevPAR growth projected at 2.8 percent, split between 3.2 percent along the coast and 2.5 percent in Providence and Warwick.
The workforce numbers were the starkest part of the presentation. Joseph Agresti of the state Department of Labor and Training said Rhode Island is projected to have nearly 11,000 leisure and hospitality job openings a year through 2034, even though net industry employment is expected to grow by only about 3,500 jobs over the entire decade. Roughly 97 percent of those openings will come from workers leaving the field or the workforce entirely.
The workforce is also aging. Workers 55 and older made up 16 percent of accommodation and food service employment in 2025, against 5 percent in 1995. Accommodation employment is down 10.5 percent from 2019, while food service and drinking places are up 2.4 percent.
Leisure and hospitality makes up an 18 percent larger share of employment in Rhode Island than it does nationally.
RIPEC’s Justine Oliva gave a mixed read on the broader economy. Unemployment fell to 3.9 percent in July, but labor force participation has declined for eight straight quarters, reaching 62.1 percent. Leisure and hospitality employment fell by about 1,800 jobs in the second quarter. Net sales tax receipts were up 4.3 percent year over year, suggesting consumer spending is holding.
Nationally, the National Restaurant Association projects sales growth of 4.3 percent this year and 4.8 percent next. Chief economist Chad Moutray said a third of restaurant operators were not profitable in the first half of 2026.
On food costs, Buyers Edge Platform expects beef supplies to stay tight and prices elevated into 2027, with pork more competitive and cheese and butter favorable for buyers.
“The data shared at this year’s Economic Outlook Breakfast reinforces just how many different factors Rhode Island’s hospitality businesses are balancing,” said Farouk Rajab, president and CEO of RI Hospitality.
