Democrat Helena Foulkes leads the governor’s race with 39% among likely Rhode Island voters, and the lieutenant governor’s contest is a statistical tie, according to a survey released Tuesday by Salve Regina University’s Pell Center.
Independent Ken Block drew 28% and Republican Aaron Guckian 17%, with 13% undecided. In the lieutenant governor’s race, Republican John Loughlin had 44% to incumbent Democrat Sabina Matos’s 43%, within the margin of error.
The survey of 815 likely 2026 midterm voters was conducted by Embold Research from Oct. 5 to 8 and has a modeled margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. It was directed by Katie Sonder, the Pell Center’s associate director and a fellow there.
The local numbers
In the survey’s combined Bristol/Newport region, Loughlin led Matos 48% to 38% — a wider margin than statewide, and his second-strongest showing after Kent County.
In the governor’s race, the region split Foulkes 37%, Block 25% and Guckian 21%, with 16% unsure. Guckian polled better in Bristol/Newport than in any other region.
Sen. Jack Reed led Republican Raymond McKay 53% to 30% in the region, below his 55-32 statewide margin.
Those regional figures come from a subsample of roughly 106 respondents — 13% of the survey — and carry a substantially larger margin of error than the statewide results.
Statewide
Reed led McKay 55% to 32%, with independent Michael Bahry at 4%. U.S. Reps. Gabe Amo and Seth Magaziner each drew 52%; Republican Victor Mellor trailed Magaziner by 13 points in the 2nd District, and Kellie Keenan trailed Amo by 19 in the 1st.
Kim Ahern led Alan Gordon 52% to 34% for attorney general, with 13% unsure.
Foulkes led across major demographic groups, with her strongest support among people of color (53%), women (44%) and college-educated voters (43%). But Block and Guckian’s combined share exceeded hers in several groups and in every Rhode Island county, according to the report.
Matos ran strongest among women (53%) and Hispanic voters (56%); Loughlin among men (58%) and white voters (47%).
“While congressional incumbent candidates appear to have strong leads, likely midterm voters are more divided in the races for governor and lieutenant governor, where important distinctions emerge across demographic groups and counties,” Sonder said in a statement.
The survey is the seventh installment of the Pell Center’s Voices of Value project. Respondents were recruited through online and text-to-web sampling, and results were weighted to 2024 presidential vote and to demographics including age, gender, ethnicity, education and region — but not party registration, according to the methodology statement.
