The coronavirus crisis will peak in Rhode Island on April 19th, with about 975 people in the hospital and will last well into June, according to projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.
The projections are based on data from the federal and state governments, and the World Health Organization to create a four-month statistical model.
The projection assumes Rhode Island residents maintain social distancing, with schools and nonessential businesses closed and the governor’s “Safer at Home” order still in effect.
The projections indicate the number of people hospitalized due to COVID-19 one month later (May 19th) could be as low as 31 or as high as 225, with about 156 the most likely number.
With 755 hospital beds available in the state, it would seem hospitals statewide may be challenged with COVID19 cases for more than two weeks, according to the projections. The report projects Rhode Island will need more hospital beds than it has available from April 12th – April 26th.
At its peak on April 19th, the reports says 975 beds will be needed and 147 ICU beds will be needed. That’s a bed shortage of 180 beds, and a ICU bed shortage of 106 beds.
The report also indicates 117 ventilators will be needed.
As of March 29th, there were 294 positive cases of COVID-19 in Rhode Island, with 35 patients hospitalized.
The projections indicate at least a few people would still require hospitalization as late as June 20th.
The projection indicates Rhode Island is likely to suffer between 198 – 457 deaths from COVID-19 before August 4th, with 306 deaths likely.
Nationwide, the projection says the crisis will peak around April 15th, with more than 220,000 in the hospital. The study projects that total COVID-19 deaths project by August 4th is between 29,174 – 141,995, with 82,141 deaths likely.
All of this data is updating daily as new data and precautions are taken. To see the latest projections for the United States, Rhode Island, and other states, see below.
To view the methods used to produce the projections click here.