As we head into 2026, there is no shortage of opinions about where the housing market is going. What I want to offer here is not a national headline or a one-size-fits-all forecast, but a grounded, local perspective rooted in experience.
I have a front-row seat to how buyers, sellers, and renters are actually behaving across Newport County and Rhode Island as a whole. This outlook is shaped by data, daily conversations, and real transactions, not simply predictions or theory.
The short version is this: the local market is resetting, not breaking. Balance is returning, but demand will continue to outpace supply here. That reality defines everything that follows.
A Reset and Rebound, Not a Bust
Earlier this month, Redfin released its 2026 housing outlook titled The Great Housing Reset. I agree with that framing on a national stage. Locally, however, I don’t see a reset that weakens our market. What I see instead is a recalibration of expectations.
Pricing discipline has returned. Buyers and sellers are acting with intention again. The days of 15 offers on every listing are largely behind us, but that does not signal distress. It signals maturity.
What I do not expect, especially in Newport County, is a bust. This is not a market that collapses, and likely never will. Demand will always exceed supply here. Geography, zoning, historic housing stock, demand for second homes, and limited new construction ensure that only so much inventory can ever be created.
If anything, I am expecting a busier housing market in 2026 than what we saw in 2025, which was one of the slowest years in recent memory.
National Data Meets Local Reality
Last month, while attending the National Association of Realtors conference in Houston, I heard directly from Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors. His outlook was pragmatic and data-driven, pointing toward stabilizing mortgage rates, modest price appreciation, and a housing market that gradually regains balance.
I agree with much of that assessment. The important distinction is that those projections are national. Rhode Island, and Newport County in particular, operates in a much tighter and more lifestyle-driven housing ecosystem.
According to **Realtor.com’s 2026 housing forecast, mortgage rates are expected to average around 6.3 percent. Home prices are projected to rise modestly by roughly 2.2 percent, while existing-home sales are forecast to increase by about 1.7 percent, a meaningful improvement from 2025’s near 30-year low.
National for-sale inventory is expected to rise nearly 9 percent year over year. That signals a more balanced environment where price growth steadies and negotiating power tilts slightly toward buyers. Housing affordability improves as incomes outpace inflation, pushing the typical housing payment below 30 percent of income for the first time since 2022.
Even with these improvements, supply will still lag demand in coastal New England markets like ours. National inventory recovery does not translate evenly at the local level. Here, even small increases in inventory are absorbed quickly.
Mortgage Rates Will Stabilize, Not Drop
Mortgage rates are not going back to the 3s or 4s. Those days are long gone.
What we are likely to see instead is stability. After higher-than-expected rates throughout much of 2025, mortgage rates eased in the second half of the year and settled into the low 6 percent range. Realtor.com forecasts the average 30-year fixed rate at approximately 6.3 percent throughout 2026.
Even with modest home price growth, affordability is expected to improve slightly. The typical monthly payment on a median-priced home is projected to decline year over year, marking the first annual decline since 2020. Rising incomes further reduce the share of income required for housing. The gains may be modest, but they are meaningful.
The Lock-In Effect Still Shapes Supply
The mortgage rate lock-in effect remains one of the strongest forces shaping housing supply. Roughly four out of every five homeowners with a mortgage hold a rate below 6 percent. That reality continues to limit turnover.
As that share gradually declines in 2026, moves will still be driven primarily by life necessity rather than opportunity. Job changes, family growth, downsizing, divorce, and estate planning will remain the main catalysts for listings.
Life does not pause for interest rates. That tension between financial logic and personal reality will define many housing decisions this year.
Rentals Have Repriced to Reality
The rental market has already gone through its reset. Vacancy rates climbed in 2025, particularly among landlords still pricing units as if pandemic-era demand never ended. Many renters have returned to offices, lost remote flexibility, and become far more price-sensitive.
Local dynamics will be especially important to watch around Salve Regina University, where evolving on-campus housing policies may impact traditional nine-month academic rentals.
In 2026, landlords who succeed will be those who understand timing and pricing. June and September remain critical listing windows. The most expensive rental is still the vacant one.
The Generational Wealth Shift Is Just Beginning
One of the most consequential forces shaping the next decade of housing is the transfer of generational wealth now underway.
Baby Boomers hold approximately 85 trillion dollars, representing nearly half of the nation’s total wealth, despite making up less than 20 percent of the population. They are also the largest generation of homeowners.
As this generation ages, retires, downsizes, moves into assisted living, or passes away, families will be tasked with managing estates and long-held real estate assets. Over the next ten years, trillions of dollars will change hands.
In Newport County, where new construction is extremely limited, this generational turnover may quietly become the primary source of future inventory. These homes may need work. They may be dated. But they will represent opportunity in a market where entry points have been scarce.
The “Taylor Swift Tax” and What It Means for Newport County
The so-called “Taylor Swift Tax” continues to generate conversation as Rhode Island’s non-resident real estate surcharge takes effect, particularly in luxury and coastal markets. With the superstar singer slated to be married in Westerly this summer, her name remains in the news, but the policy itself impacts a much broader group of second-home owners, buyers, and sellers.
In Newport County, this surcharge may influence pricing strategies at the high end and cause some non-resident owners to rethink timing or long-term plans. While I do not expect it to derail demand, it adds another layer of cost and consideration that buyers and sellers must factor into their decision-making in 2026. Informed planning and local guidance will matter more than ever.
My Advice for Buyers
The savvy buyer is the smart buyer right now.
Anything in writing starts a conversation, especially on a property that has been sitting on the market for more than a month. Thoughtful, data-driven offers are creating leverage where emotion once ruled.
Buyers are finding success by understanding true market value and acting decisively when opportunities arise. Working with a licensed professional who has strong market share can also put opportunities in your lap before they ever hit the market.
If you are considering a purchase in 2026, now is the time to schedule a consultation and build a plan before the right property appears.
My Advice for Sellers
For sellers, my message is simple: let’s get to work.
In every successful transaction I was fortunate to be part of this year, the process started with a conversation. Talking about your goals is never too early or too aggressive. It creates clarity and sets a pathway for success.
Pre-listing preparation, pricing strategy, and positioning matter more now than they have in years. Budget for repairs where you can. Clear your home of clutter or distractions. Do the work upfront so the home is ready for the market, not simply listed on it. Prior planning prevents poor performance.
My Advice for Renters
Renters have more leverage than they did a few years ago, but realism still matters. Well-priced rentals move quickly. Overpriced rentals sit.
If you’re tired of year-to-year uncertainty, it may be time to speak with a local lender and understand where you stand financially. You don’t know what you don’t know.
If flexibility allows, expanding your search beyond Aquidneck Island into nearby East Bay communities can unlock better value without sacrificing lifestyle. If you plan to continue renting, securing a full-year lease rather than remaining month-to-month can provide stability.
My Advice for Landlords
For landlords, 2026 needs to be a year of proactive compliance. Rhode Island’s rental registry requirements and lead safety laws were among the most polarizing topics of conversation this past year, but the direction is clear. The state is increasing enforcement, not loosening it.
While the process can feel burdensome, real estate remains one of the most durable long-term investments available, and doing things the right way protects both tenants and owners. Staying compliant preserves asset value, reduces liability, and ensures that rental housing remains a viable and respected part of our local housing ecosystem. The landlords who treat compliance as part of good stewardship will be best positioned moving forward.
Markets to Watch in Newport County and Beyond
Within Newport County, Tiverton is the market I am watching most closely. It continues to offer relative value, accessibility, and housing stock that appeals to younger buyers and first-time homeowners. I am seeing more families prioritize Tiverton as a way to stay close to Aquidneck Island while stretching their dollar further just over the bridge.
I also expect continued migration toward the East Bay, particularly Bristol and Warren, where buyers can find value without sacrificing community or lifestyle.
Beware the Wholesalers
This is a conversation every Rhode Island homeowner should be paying attention to, especially older homeowners who may own their property free and clear.
There has been a noticeable increase in real estate wholesalers entering our local market. These are middlemen who target discounted or distressed properties, place them under contract, and then assign those contracts to cash investors or complete double closings for profit.
The marketing is everywhere. Cash for homes. Fast closings. No repairs. The problem is simple. The only person who loses in these transactions is the consumer.
Wholesalers are not fiduciaries. They do not represent the seller’s best interest. Their profit is created by paying less than fair market value and selling higher moments later.
Connecticut has already taken steps to address this issue by requiring wholesalers to register with the Department of Consumer Protection. I would not be surprised if Rhode Island follows suit. If someone approaches you with a quick cash offer, slow down. Ask questions. Understand what your home is actually worth.
A Personal Perspective
2025 was a strong year, even in what many considered one of the most challenging markets in recent history.
I was fortunate to experience the highest year of production in my career and to help close friends and longtime clients in the process. I am grateful for the trust placed in me and honored to have been recognized by Newport Life Magazine in their Best of Newport County awards, alongside recognition for RE/MAX Results as a brokerage.
As Chairperson of the Newport County Board of Realtors, I am looking forward to serving our colleagues, members, and community in 2026 alongside a thoughtful and dedicated board, with a continued focus on professionalism, education, and consumer advocacy.
Real estate is deeply personal to me. I work primarily by referral, which means every transaction carries weight. These decisions deserve care, respect, and attention to detail.
In 2026, I am taking on more clients. If you have real estate-related needs, feel free to reach out directly at 401-241-1851 or TylerB@resultswithremax.com.
In Conclusion
I am confident in this market for both buyers and sellers who approach it with clarity, preparation, and the right guidance.
Buyers who are informed and strategic will find opportunity. Sellers who plan, prepare, and price correctly will still achieve strong outcomes. Inventory remains limited. Demand remains real. Value in Newport County has proven resilient through every cycle.
This market is not breaking. It is finding its footing again. And for those willing to engage thoughtfully, 2026 offers real opportunity on both sides of the transaction.
Happy New Year and happy house hunting. Cheers to 2026, and thanks for reading.
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