After a mostly entertaining Divisional Round of games in the NFL last weekend, three games decided by one possession and a single rout, resulted in an almost odds-defying matchup of top seeds (Baltimore and San Francisco) versus three seeds (Detroit and Kansas City.) For local fans, who may profess to have no interest if the Patriots aren’t in the mix, there were, and still are, storylines that compel football fans to tune in to these games.
In the Divisional round, it was watching Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills continue their frustration in the playoffs, even when the quarterback is mentioned as an elite quarterback, and the team has taken control of the AFC East since the 2020 season.
Looking forward to this weekend, Patriot fans will no doubt watch as Patrick Mahomes plays in his sixth straight AFC Championship game, with most cheering against him since they don’t want the QB to achieve the same level of success as former Patriot legend Tom Brady. And for Patriot fans with a sense of history, they will be looking ahead a game and rooting against the 49ers because if they win the Lombardi Trophy, they will be only the third team to capture the title for the sixth time since the NFL-AFL merger in 1966 and first title game the following year.
Now, for this weekend’s matchups. While Mahomes and the Chiefs have plenty of playoff experience, this isn’t the same team as years past, and they don’t have the luxury of home-field advantage. Also, the Ravens have the top-scoring defense and most sacks in the league this year. And while the Chiefs have played their last two games in brutally cold weather, this weekend, they are looking at a possible winter storm advisory for rain and wind, combined with a team that gets after the quarterback and plays smothering zone defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have Lamar Jackson, a favorite among many to be the MVP this year, who can run or pass the ball. Granted, Kansas City had the second-best scoring defense this year, but Baltimore plays in the toughest division; every team finished above .500, and the Ravens blew out the Texans, Browns, Lions, Seahawks, 49ers, and Dolphins, and also beat another playoff team, the Rams. It just seems that with Tyreek Hill now in Miami and fewer weapons available to make big plays, Kansas City won’t make it out of Baltimore with a second road playoff win, not the way the Ravens have been firing on all cylinders lately.
This weekend’s second game pits five-time champions and perennial contenders, the San Francisco 49ers, against a team that hasn’t been to a conference final game since 1991, making the Detroit Lions a huge sentimental favorite. Both teams had hard-fought wins at home last week, but the top-seed 49ers seemed to have to work a bit harder and from behind before pulling out the victory late in the game.
Quarterback Brock Purdy didn’t display his normal poise under pressure and seemed off his game compared to his play during the regular season. Maybe it was the rust coming off the bye week or having to play in the subpar weather conditions in San Jose.
In Detroit, the Lions and Tampa Bay played even for the first three-quarters of their game, but Jahmyr Gibbs and Jared Goff took over in the final frame and held on for an eight-point win. The weather this week in California looks to be almost summerlike, so that shouldn’t be a factor, except maybe to add to the point total. If you’re betting, you may want to take the “over” (the line currently stands at 51.5 points), because this could become a shootout. However, both teams could opt for more ball control, San Francisco using their MVP candidate, Christian McCaffrey, to wind the clock, while Detroit looks to utilize Gibbs to take advantage of the 49er’s outside edge, much like Green Bay did with Aaron Jones.
Either way, both teams have considerable receiving targets, so this game will come down to which QB is sharper, turnovers, and ball control. This game is harder to call, even though the oddsmakers set a bigger line, but something in the gut just tells me to go with the underdog in a close one that ends something like 37-34 and might even go to overtime.
As of press time late on Thursday, Ravens star tight end Mark Andrews is set to return to play. The line for the AFC game has the Ravens as a 3.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 44.5 points.
For the late game in the NFC, the 49ers are a full 7-point favorite. For the celebrity watchers, if my two picks lose, that would set up a 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl, which would in turn, create a faceoff between native Rhode Islander and former Miss Universe Olivia Culpo, who is engaged to McCaffrey versus part-time resident and celebrity girlfriend of Chiefs tight end, Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift.
And may the sports gods forgive me for even including that item in this column. Now, onto the games, and please, no conspiracy theorizing.